Monday, October 31, 2011

Don't be mad that the Rams beat the Saints!

I know ESPN and Bleacher and everyone else will drop the Saints in the ranking system and come down on them. But they shouldn't. Nor should fans kiss the Super Bowl dreams goodbye. I had the Saints pegged as a 13-3 season team during my August Analysis and they're still on track for that. Worst case scenario I see would be 11-5.
I believe the Saints can still win the NFC South and maybe even a first round bye. The Packers will most likely win home field throughout the playoffs. San Francisco is the other candidate for the first round bye. Looking at the 49ers schedule, the only real threats I see are games with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but they could still end up 13-3 as well. Whoever survives with the NFC East title looks like they have an appointment for wild card weekend.
But back to the Saints, don't come down too hard on them.
We can take a look at their past 3 losses.
Green Bay...can't really say much, they played one of the best offenses in the league at Lambeau.
Tampa Bay...Earnest Graham puncturing through their soft run defense and Brees throwing key interceptions. There were questions to why the Saints did not use Sproles, Thomas and Ingram more...look for them to rectify that this coming week against the Bucs.
And St. Louis...again, that weak run defense was hit hard by Steven Jackson. Jackson is a one-man wrecking crew. Add the interceptions by Brees and there is your loss.
The game reminded me of some other upsets.

November 16, 1997
The 8-2 Green Bay Packers took on an 0-10 Indianapolis Colts team at the RCA Dome. The Packers were the defending Super Bowl champions, with Brett Favre in his prime, going up against back-up quarterback Paul Justin. 3 Dorsey Levens touchdowns and one from Antonio Freeman put the Packers up 28-27 at the halftime. But the teamwork of Paul Justin, Marshall Faulk, Marvin Harrison, Ken Dilger and Sean Dawkins kept the Colts in the game. In the 4th quarter, it was tied 38-38 after a Freeman touchdown. The Colts won off of a 20 yard Cary Blanchard field goal, 41-38. It would give the Colts their first win, with 2 more victories to follow. This would also be the last season before the Peyton Manning era.
As for the Green Bay Packers, the Colts loss would be their last. They would power through the Cowboys, Vikings, Buccaneers, Panthers and Bills to finish 13-3.
They would defeat the Buccaneers 21-7 in the divisional round.
The next week at the NFC Championship Game, they would stomp the 49ers 23-10.

And most of us football fanatics know the Packers would lose to John Elway and the Denver Broncos at Super Bowl XXXII 24-31.

There are a few other upset games that come to mind.

December 2, 1985
The 12-0 Chicago Bears met the 8-4 Miami Dolphins in a game that featured Walter Payton and Dan Marino. The Dolphins overpowered the juggernaut Bears for the win, 38-24 in their first and only loss of 1985. The funny thing was, it was almost a Dolphins-Bears Super Bowl, had it not been for a Patriots upset in the AFC Championship. The Bears would destroy the Patriots in that Super Bowl.

November 1, 1998
The 7-0 Minnesota Vikings went into Raymond James Stadium to play a 3-4 Bucs team, which they had beaten earlier 31-7. In their second meeting, the Bucs were able to keep rookie sensation Randy Moss out of the mix and hand the Vikings their first and only loss in the 1998 regular season. The Vikings would play the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship and lose in overtime, 27-30.

December 13, 1998
The 13-0 Denver Broncos played the 5-8 New York Giants. The Broncos retained most of their Super Bowl XXXII team, with John Elway, Terrell Davis and Shannon Sharpe. It ended as Kent Graham hit Amani Toomer for the game winning touchdown. Giants won 20-16. The Broncos would also lose to the Dolphins in the next week, but end up going 14-2 and defeating the Atlanta Falcons 34-19 in Super Bowl XXXIII.

November 8, 2009
The 4-3 Green Bay Packers played an 0-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneer team, with Josh Freeman in his rookie year. In their ugly Hooters orange uniforms, the Bucs pulled off an upset win, ending with a Will Allen 35 yard interception return for a touchdown, giving the Bucs a 38-28 victory.
The 11-5 Packers would go on to lose in a wild shoot out, 45-51 to the Arizona Cardinals in the wild card round.

December 19, 2009
The 13-0 New Orleans Saints hosted the 8-5 Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys dominated the Saints throughout the game, Drew Brees tried to engineer a comeback, but it was over when he fumbled with 6 seconds left. Cowboys won 24-17. The Saints would drop the last 2 games of the season to the Bucs and Panthers to finish 13-3 with the number 1 seed and would upset the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV 31-17.

I won't count the December 27, 2009 game between the New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts were 14-0 and leading the Jets at half-time, 9-3. Then, Jim Caldwell made the decision to put Peyton Manning out and Curtis Painter in. The crowd viciously disagreed as Painter sputtered and the Jets, with Mark Sanchez, gave the Colts their first loss 29-15. I'm not counting it as a true upset since anytime I see key starters being pulled early is a sign the team is prepared to take a loss to conserve on its players. The Colts, under Painter, would lose the final game at the Bills to finish 14-2. They would go to the Super Bowl and lose to the Saints team that I mentioned above.

So, in closing, the Saints giving the Rams their first win isn't the end of the world. For all we know, this could be the last Saints defeat for 2011. And I made a prediction in August that we would see the Saints and Packers in the NFC Championship and I still believe it's a possibility.

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